Optimizing Ivy Portfolio

Early on I posted a simple live version of GTAA strategy. It demonstrated the effectiveness of the Ivy Portfolio (M.Faber, 2009) rationale in recent market with a small sample. Again, the rationale is very simple and powerful: screen a wide range of asset classes each week/month, then invest in those that have shown the strongest momentum. Last time I tracked 39 ETFs’ 9-month SMA and equally allocated portfolio assets to the top 8. Although I got pretty good results, the sample was relatively small and those ETFs are quite different in terms of time of inception, liquidity, tracking error, etc.

And above all, equal allocation seems a bit, for lack of a better word, boring. This time I want to use a more general sample to see how we can improve this by implementing some optimization strategies I’ve shown in my previous post Backtesting Portfolio Optimization Strategies.

Some equipment check before we launch the test.

Asset Classes:
1. SPX Index: S&P 500 LargeCap Index
2. MID Index: S&P 400 MidCap Index
3. SML Index: S&P 600 SmallCap Index
4. MXEA Index: MSCI EAFE Index
5. MXEF Index: MSCI Emerging Markets Index
6. LBUSTRUU Index: Barclays US Agg Total Return Value Unhedged USD (U.S. investment grade bond)
7. XAU Curncy: Gold/USD Spot
8. SPGSCI Index: Goldman Sachs Commodity Index
9. DJUSRE Index: Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate Index
10. GBP Curncy: GBP/USD Spot
11. EUR Curncy: EUR/USD Spot
12. JPY Curncy: JPY/USD Spot
13. HKD Curncy: HKD/USD Spot

Rules:
1. Rebalance monthly
2. Rank 12-month SMA; invest in the top 3
3. For each asset, minimum weight = 5%; maximum weight = 95%
4. Use CVaR optimization to construct the portfolio each month; confidence level = 1%


Fortunately, our test didn’t fall apart and crash into the Pacific Ocean. The CVaR model seems did a good job improving the original strategy. However, it has to be pointed out that not all optimization models are better than an equal-weighted one. As demonstrated below, the minimum-variance and maximum-sharpe ratio models didn’t make much difference.

roy

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4 responses to “Optimizing Ivy Portfolio

  1. Quantum Financier 05/23/2012 at 12:21 am

    Very nice, any improvement by allowing the strategy to use a 0 weight or even shorting some for a small portion of the portfolio? In a similar fashion to what a lot of 130/30 funds do..

    • roywei1987 05/23/2012 at 1:48 am

      hi QF: thanks for commenting. Setting weights between (0, 1) didn’t make much difference from (.5, .95). I set it mostly because only 3 assets were chosen each month in this strategy. If the optimizer eliminated two of them at a certain point, the portfolio would bet everything on a single asset for at least an entire month.

      I’ve tried some 1X0/X0 strategies, too. They only work well with the Sharpe ratio optimizer and a different indicator (EMA), so I excluded it this time.

      roy

  2. Pingback: Optimizing Ivy Portfolio (2) | Alphaism

  3. Pingback: Optimizing Ivy Portfolio « Freedom Trading FX

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